Following up on my post from yesterday about how lobbying from insurance interests is leading the Senate away from a public option for health care despite massive popular support for such an option, here’s some interesting statistical work by Nate Silver that estimates just how big of an impact they’ve had peeling away Democratic support:
Suppose that the health care insurance industry were prohibited from making political contributions? In that case, the model predicts, 47 senators would currently support the public option, as opposed to the 38 who actually do. In other words, the insurance industry’s influence appears to swing about 9 votes against the public option. Whatever number of senators wind up supporting the public option, add 9 to it, and you’ll have a decent ballpark estimate for what the level of support might be if not for insurance industry contributions.
As the kids say, read the whole thing.
(Hat tip: Paul Krugman.)