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There Are Tough Days and Then There Are Tough Days

Stanislav Petrov

If you think your September 26 has been stressful, what with banks failing and the economy faltering and all, just remember that there’s always someone else who has had it worse.

For one example, on this day 25 years ago, a 44-year-old Russian lieutenant colonel named Stanislav Petrov (pictured above) had to — literally — save the world.

On September 26, 1983, Petrov was commanding one of the Soviet Union’s top-secret early-warning stations, where they used data from satellites to monitor whether the U.S. had launched a nuclear first strike. It was the height of the Cold War, and tensions between the superpowers were as high as they had ever been.

So you can imagine Petrov’s horror when, just after midnight on that day, one of the satellites started reporting that such a strike had begun:

The responsibility fell to Petrov, then a 44-year-old lieutenant colonel, to make a decision: Was it for real?

Petrov was situated at a critical point in the chain of command, overseeing a staff that monitored incoming signals from the satellites. He reported to superiors at warning-system headquarters; they, in turn, reported to the general staff, which would consult with Soviet leader Yuri Andropov on the possibility of launching a retaliatory attack.

Petrov’s role was to evaluate the incoming data. At first, the satellite reported that one missile had been launched - then another, and another. Soon, the system was “roaring,” he recalled - five Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles had been launched, it reported.

Soviet military doctrine at the time was very clear: if a first strike was detected, they were to immediately fire back with everything they had. The reason was simple — if they didn’t fire their missiles, those missiles would be destroyed on the ground by the incoming American nukes.

Of course, when the Americans saw the Russian missiles coming at them, they would have to fire anything they had left, for the same reason — a cruel paradox that military strategists called “use them or lose them”. And if both sides unleashed their full arsenals, it would effectively mean the end of the world.

But even though the satellites were telling him that five missiles had been launched at his country — missiles that, if real, would have killed millions — Petrov, dogged by uncertainty, refused to be a slave to his orders:

“I just couldn’t believe that just like that, all of a sudden, someone would hurl five missiles at us. Five missiles wouldn’t wipe us out. The U.S. had not five, but a thousand missiles in battle readiness.” It just didn’t seem like any scenario considered by military intelligence before.

The second thought on Petrov’s mind every time he was on duty was this:

“I imagined if I’d assume the responsibility for unleashing the third World War - and I said, no, I wouldn’t.”

The data in front of him was clear; nobody would have questioned him if he had ordered Russia’s missiles into the air. But instead of firing back, he reported to his superiors that the missile launch was a false alarm — despite the fact that he had no proof of this other than a gut feeling and an unwillingness to be the man to start Armageddon.

Of course, he was right. No missiles had been launched. The satellite had been wrong. But for a few tense minutes 25 years ago today, Stanislav Petrov had quite literally held the fate of the world in his hands.

That’s a tough day at the office.

Comments (1)

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Great post, Jason. Fascinating.

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